Table of Contents

Coping with Global Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the United States

Foreword ii

Executive Summary iii

I. Introduction 1

A. Climate Change, Impacts, and Adaptation 1
B. Adaptation Concepts and Definitions 3
C. Changes in Human Adaptive Capacity 6

II. What History Tells Us About Adaptation to Climate Variability 8

A. Crop Translocation: Winter Wheat in the United States 8
B. Resource Substitution in Response to Scarcity:
Dryland for Irrigated Agriculture in the Great Plains 10
C. Sea-Level Rise Analogue: The Rising Great Salt Lake 11
D. Case Study Lessons 12

III. Reactive Adaptation: How Successful Will It Be? 14

A. Reactive Adaptation as Assessed in Quantitative Studies 14
B. Effectiveness of Reactive Adaptation—General Findings 16

IV. The Case for Proactive Adaptation 24

A. Knowledge and Learning 25
B. Risk and Disaster Management and Response 25
C. Infrastructure Planning and Development 26
D. Institutional Design and Reform 26
E. Increased Flexibility of Sensitive Managed and Unmanaged Systems 29
F. Avoidance of “Maladaptations” 30
G. Technological Innovation 30
H. The Role of Public Policy 31

V. Conclusions 32

References 35